Cognitive heuristics and biases

Availability heuristic

Let me illustrate this heuristic by the following conversation one of professors at UC Davis had with a friend of hers.

I know there are no raccoons in Davis, but I saw one so they must be increasing in population.

No, there have always been racoons here.

There weren’t. I haven’t seen one ever before and I live here 10 years.

I mean, I study that, so I know there have always been racoons here. When did you see it?

I saw it at 2am when the baby woke me up and I went outside to chill for a bit.

Ah, you have a baby?

Yeah, she is a month old.

Congratulations. Racoon always there. Baby new.

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